The new dominant player in the Middle East.

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If all the territories populated by Kurds were one united country – an independent state they would most definitely be one of the biggest oil producers in the world, given their production only in Iraq of 600,000 barrels per day. And the region potential is even greater. It is estimated that there are over 45 billion barrels of reserves in Iraqi Kurdistan – more than Nigeria’s. Kurdistan is one of the last wildcards in the oil markets. There is no clear monopoly in the region – that’s where all the disputes come from.

Some of the big companies include Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Total SA and DNO ASA. The last one is the biggest player on the ground – exporting more than 110,000 barrels a day. There are still a lot of roadblocks for big companies, though. Prices have been very volatile – $100 per barrel from 2011 to 2014 and down to $60 in 2015. Another major issue has been that this is effectively a war zone still. ISIS are merely 30 km from Erbil – Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital.

Also there have been many dispute with the Shia (Iran) dominated government in Iraq. Kurdish forces have occupied territories around the Sunni dominated Kirkuk – very rich on oil. Iraq government declared that they won’t sell oil to anyone buying from the Kurds, but if the situation on the ground continues to develop in the same direction, more and more investor would prefer to buy from the Kurds. The territories controlled by the Kurds have remained relatively peaceful and Kurdistan controls almost half of the oil in Iraq. Some Russian companies also show interest in the region.

So who are the clear winners and losers from this situation? Kurds in general are the obvious winner. Currently there are over 40 million Kurds living in 5 countries. That makes them the biggest minority without a country of their own.

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That is beginning to change now. Kurds in Iraq and Syria have already de facto started their autonomies states – almost 8 million Kurds.

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However, there are still over 15 million Kurds in Turkey’s eastern parts and there is a civil war raging there currently. Of course, the war is not covered by the MSM, because Turkey is a Western ally. Turks are by far the biggest losers from this situation, as Kurdish oil is transported to the western markets by the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline.

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The pipeline goes almost in its entirety through regions dominated by the Kurds. And as Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan are already de facto sovereign nations, Turkey seems to be next to follow the list as countries who will lose territory to the Kurds, who have been oppressed for decades.

With its massive oil production and with military forces such as Peshmerga (250,000 fighters), YPG (50,000) and PKK (40,000) it seems like that the formation of united Kurdistan is inevitable. If all the Kurds formed a country it is estimated that it would have GDP of over $150 billion. They have the numbers (over 350,000 fighters), they have the experience (they have fought oppressors for decades), the economy and the finance to provide for their people so it seems that it’s only a matter of time before we see a united Kurdistan with territories in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and potentially even Iran.

Weapons of mass destruction.

 

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We live in a modern world, which is constantly evolving and changing. Nowadays, you do not need to bomb a country in order to destroy it. Derivatives will do a much better job. You’re probably asking yourself what is a derivative? Derivative is a contract between two parties based upon an asset. Its value is dependent on the fluctuations of the price of that asset. Essentially, derivatives are bets.

The derivatives market was one of the main reasons for the financial meltdown in 2008, which costs exceeded $23 trillion only in bailouts. It left 12,5 million people unemployed, 8 million people lost their homes, 130 million of benefits and left 46,2 million people in poverty – the largest number in the 52 years for which poverty estimates have been published.

Is this enough numbers for you? I already wrote an article on why the next financial crisis is imminent. Here is one more reason why we can’t escape our faith. The 2008 crash was largely caused by the unregulated derivatives markets. And if you think the problem has been fixed, you’re mistaken.

If used right, derivatives are a useful tool of hedging risk, however if not – these could be the new weapons of mass destruction that Warren Buffet warned us about. Let’s take for an example American International Group (AIG) – the insurance giant that lost almost $100 billion in 2008. How did this happen? Well, let’s say that you are a pension fund manager. Part of your charter says that you can only invest in very safe investments, because you can’t risk all the life’s work of honest workers. You can only invest in things that are rated AAA – the highest standard. However, some major corporation (let’s call it corporation K) needs a loan, but is only rated at BBB – not high enough rating. So what do you do, the corporation needs money and you have money to spend. This is where AIG comes in with the so called credit default swaps – an insurance on the loan. So you lend the corporation a small loan of a $1 billion dollars with 10% interest. But in order to stay in the clear in front of the investors in the fund – the hardworking Americans you need to package the whole deal and declare it “safe”. So you go to AIG (a company with AAA rating, almost impossible to fail right?) and strike a deal with them. They will insure the loan in exchange for an insurance premium – 2% of the loan payments. Now, all of a sudden the loan has a rating of AAA, because it is insured by AIG.

However, AIG doesn’t have $1 billion dollar in reserve in case of corporation A fails on their loan. In fact, AIG is a highly leveraged with very few capital in reserve. So any small miss fortune will sink the whole ship, as it happened in 2008. This is only a small example of how derivatives are used, so that bankers and insurance can keep their margins high and their bonuses big. Derivatives are essentially bets, simple as that.

The derivatives market as a whole is HUGE. It is estimated to reach more than $1,2 QUADRILLION. That is 10 times the size of the total world GDP. There are virtually available derivatives on every possible asset – equities, commodities, bonds, currency exchange and even the weather. Yes, bankers can bet on the weather.

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This problem wasn’t addressed after the crash of 2008 and derivatives market still remains a Ticking Time Bomb. Most of derivatives contracts are based on interest rates. Most big banks still have them on their balance sheets and even if 0,1% of the money insured by derivatives is at risk It would wipe out 10% of a bank’s equity. 1% would wipe out all of the bank’s equity. So next time when the news bombards you with news about North Korea, know that there is a far greater threat for the U.S.A. and the whole world, a new kind of weapon, invisible and yet- more deadly than most of the bombs in the world.

The next financial meltdown: When the party stops.

 

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It’s been 8 years since the last financial crisis and it seems like we all forgot what happened then, since nothing has change. Toxic CDOs are still being sold, banks are still giving out loans to everyone with an ID on himself, the stock market is at a record high, bankers are getting $millions in bonuses, consumers are buying stuff they don’t really need, on credit of course, houses, cars and almost everyone is getting into college. But what really causes recessions? Well and easy escape would be to say: greed. Greed is a human emotion and emotions can’t cause a massive bubble. Credit on the other hand, can.

There a couple of massive bubbles so let’s start with the stock market.

1st warning sign: It doesn’t take a genius to add 2+2. A quick look at the S&P 500 is all we need to understand that something is wrong here. Usually crisis appear every 10 or so years, sometimes sooner. Well, we are in year 8 already and the S&P is at a record high.

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2nd warning: Housing prices are record high again, especially in the big cities, where the economy has recovered the fastest. Subprime mortgages are again given to almost everyone with an ID on him – aided by the low mortgage rates and Dodd-Frank regulations that push banks toward lending to the upper middle class and wealthy.

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3rd warning: More scaring this time is that there are massive bubbles in other sectors as well. Car loans at a record high as well, toppling $1 trillion for the first time.

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More and more buyers who borrow to purchase used cars may find themselves overextended with a loan that stretches well beyond their fast-depreciating vehicles.

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Most of these people consider their cars to be an asset, which it is, but for the BANK, not the car owner. It’s a liability of the owner.

4th warning: I have already wrote about the massive bubble in higher education, but let’s summarize anyway. Outstanding student loans now exceed $1,5 trillion and more than 40% of borrowers are in default or behind on their payment.

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This is all thanks to the subsidized government programs that encourage more people to go to college than the real economy needs. So now we have hundreds of thousands of unemployed with the worst kind of debt: Student loans.

This is all encourage by the FED by the way, all three of the bubbles – the federal reserve bank of the U.S., which is nor federal, neither has any reserves. It’s a private entity, which is responsible for creating money (more on this in a separate article). It has set interest rates at almost record low – 1%. This means that banks get cheap money, which furthermore means that they can give out cheap loans to almost everybody.

5th warning: European banks are on the brink of failure. Greece has already defaulted 3 times, however it has been bailed out by the EU, because if Greece collapses, the rest of the Eurozone will follow. The closest to the collapse without any outside help being Italy, Spain, Portugal, France and Ireland. Germany and the U.K. are not in a better shape either as almost every country from the Eurozone has over 100% foreign debt as part of their GDP. This debt can’t be paid. This means only one thing: eventually almost all of the countries in the Eurozone will have to default.

6th warning: There is a massive bubble in Eastern Asia. China’s national and provincial governments have subsidized inefficient state-owned enterprises and exporters with easy credit and propped growth through excessive borrowing for wasteful public work and urbanization projects. This has resulted in massive housing bubble.China new home prices, year on year growth:

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Should this bubble burst and the yuan collapse, other Asian developing economies dependent on exports to China will easily become unable to service their debt.

We have all been drunk since the recovery started. All the important indexes are at a record high, everyone is borrowing, everyone is investing in the stock market, all seems great, the best times to be alive right? All these warning signs mean only one thing though – the party is just about to stop. And as after every other great party, there is a massive hangover in the morning, some pieces from the puzzle are missing and you are handed the check for all the fun you had. And don’t get it wrong. Someone will have to pay – I’m gonna take a wild guess and assume that this would be the taxpayers, while the bankers continue to receive those fat bonus checks.

Syria before the War

Full of ancient Mosques, Roman ruins, castles built during the Crusades and souks, Syria has been the cradle of civilisation for at least 10,000 years.

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It has been part of the major empires of history – Egyptian, Persian and Roman. This is one of the most beautiful countries in the Middle East.

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Syria population was 22 million with majority being Sunni Muslim, but the country is quite diverse – with large minorities of Alawite Muslim, Druze, Orthodox Christians, Shiite Muslims, Kurds in the north, and small Jewish enclaves in the large Syrian cities. All these different ethnicities have been living together for centuries now in peace. Mixed marriages between Orthodox Christians and Sunni Muslims are not uncommon.

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In a cultural sense Syria is probably the most important country in the Middle East – captivating almost 10,000 years of history and dozens of great civilizations. Syria also boasts with one of the oldest and most sophisticated literary traditions in the world, with rich tradition in storytelling that dates back thousands of years.

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Syrian economy – as it’s people is quite diverse – the most important sectors including agriculture, industry and excavation, retail and tourism.

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In 2012 the GDP of the country was at a record high level – over $72 billion dollars, which for a population of just 22 million is quite an achievement. It went a long way since a record low in 1960 – just $400 million dollars.

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Syria has a vibrant, bustling marketplaces in the old cities of Damascus and Aleppo.

A vendor sits inside an antique shop in al-Jdeideh neighbourhood, in the Old City of Aleppo

The IT industry was also booming, despite sanctions by the west. However, the real beauty of Syria is in spies, jewellery, cloth, traditional handcrafts and a variety of foods. Especially the sweet industry of Syria. Delicious desert play almost legendary role in Syrian folklore – central at weddings, parties and other festivities.

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Sounds hard to believe? I know, right. Especially now when the country is in ruins. This was all true before 2012. After that Jihadist and other Islamist groups infiltrated the country, sponsored by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with the help of the U.S. of course.

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It all started in 2011 when peaceful protesters were arrested by the regime forces. It has been long thought that President Assad has spied on his people – it’s only ok if the U.S. does it. He personally has expressed his worries that the country will be infiltrated by Jihadist, sent from neighbouring Arab states.

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Well, surprise, surprise that’s what happened after the protest movement started. I’m not saying that the CIA and Saudi Arabia started the protests themselves – that would be very hard to organize and won’t go unnoticed.

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However, it is almost certain that they helped jihadists infiltrate the movement to radicalize it – with intelligence, weapon and armour support.

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Once a political and military giant in the region (probably the only reason it is still a country) Syria has been taken over by Jihadist, supported by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia on the one side and Russia, Iran and Hezbollah on the other. There are no winners from this war, however there are clear losers – the Syrian people, who used to live in one of the most secular and modern, peaceful countries in the Middle East.

16 year and counting: The truth behind the Afghanistan war.

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After the announcement in 2001 that the U.S. would invade Afghanistan to capture Osama bin Laden, which it did almost a decade later, but still decided to remain in the central Asian country. So the question remains: What are U.S. doing 16 years later still in Afghanistan.

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In 2010 a small team of Pentagon geologists found just how massive the scale of mineral wealth in the country was. New York Times proclaimed that this founding was completely random, as a small team of Pentagon official founded old maps that the USSR drew up, with all the mineral wealth of Afghanistan. The minerals are estimated to be worth over $1 Trillion – oil, gold, iron ore, copper, lithium (which is used to make batteries) and other minerals. Just a random event according to the MSM.

Plan of the invasion was ready to go in July 2001 and was placed on George Bush’s desk, untill 9/11 happened – 3 months later. The U.S. officially started the war on the 7th of October the same year. It took them only 26 days to prepare for this massive war. Even the U.S.’s army capabilities this is extraordinary. The planning of the logistics alone of moving all of the equipment and personnel would take more than that. I am not saying that the U.S. government planned 9/11 in advance or knew of the attacks, but the time is rather suspicious to say the least.

Alan Greenspan was the first to name the real purpose of the Iraq war: “I’m saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.” Well, if we are to name the Afghanistan war with its real name as well (the firts to do so), here it goes: The war in Afghanistan is largely about mineral wealth and opium.

Yes, opium is the other great export of Afghanistan. Since the invasion, opium trade has exploded. Over 90% of the world opium supply comes from Afghanistan. Opium is largely by BigPharma for the production of morphine, heroin and codeine. Its a billion dollar business and much of it is used in the illegal production of heroine.  According to the UN in 2014 poppy cultivation reached its highest level since the 1930s. Heroin consumption has sky rocketed and is at all times high, events that followed the U.S. invasion.

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It’s no secret that drug trafficking is a gold mine for organization who want to raise money to finance projects that they can’t get legitimately. Institutions such as the CIA, use this source of income to finance overseas operation, which they couldn’t finance with taxpayers money – toppling governments, inciting riots etc.

Zbigniew Kazimierz accurately predicted back in 1997 that the first major war of the 21th century would happen in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is the key to central Asia and from there – Russia and China.

The next big war in the Middle East

Israelis soldiers return from southern Lebanon in northern Israel

Hezbollah’s role in the Syrian Civil War has somehow gone unnoticed. This is a bit strange as they are one of the 3 biggest factions that currently impose control over a large part of Syria’s territory. Assad is just a façade – his regular army is almost non-existent, relying mainly on foreign mercenary groups, supported by Iran and Russia – the other 2 big players on the ground. The only control that Assad still has is mainly thanks to the usefulness of his Air Force and artillery units. Otherwise, the situation on the ground is controlled by Hezbollah, Shiite militias from Iraq and Iran and Russian Spetsnaz forces from the Caucasus region.

The growing influence of Hezbollah in Syria is a serious problem for Israel – as the organization is virtually the biggest opponent of the state. They are by far the most experienced Arab military force with over 30 years of conflict. Their last war with Israel was in 2006 and the war ended with no clear winner, which is by default a win for Hezbollah. By offering expertise that Assad military lacked, such as urban warfare tactics, they have turned the course of the war and there help won’t go unnoticed.

The biggest loser from the war in Syria seems to be Israel, as Iran and Hezbollah now dominate the neighbouring country. Not to mention how Iran has basically overtaken Iraq as well. The growing power of these two factions hasn’t gone unnoticed by Israel – recently they bombed different military objects in Syria. It undoubtedly suits Tel Aviv to let Hezbollah bleed in Syria, but chances are that the military organisation comes out stronger out of this conflict. So it seems to be inevitable that a future war is on the horizon.

Israel will probably keep on bombing Hezbollah in Syria, but this brings many potential problems with it. Russia personnel is working closely with Assad, Hezbollah and Iranian troops on the ground. So if one of these strikes Russian troops on the ground… well, this might be the catalyst of an unintended, potentially disastrous consequences.

There is no such notion as The UNITED States Of America

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Currently there are 50 states that are in the Union. So, I have always found it interesting how people generalize when they talk about the “United” States of America. Yes, there is a federal government that imposes a lot of control over the states, but how different are states from one another?

The 10th amendment states (no pun intendent): “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” So obviously the founding fathers new how important state independence is.

Let’s examine how different are all the states from one another really. Well, let’s start with the most obvious thing first: what kind of people live in different states? Well, you would be surprised. After a quick look at the map we can see just how diverse the U.S. in terms of ethnicity is. The north east side of the coast is dominated by people from English, Irish, Italian and French decent. The south east coast is dominated by people from German, African American and American decent. The whole upper part of the Mid West is dominated by people from German decent.

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By far the largest ancestral group stretching from coast to coast are Germans – over 49,000,000 people. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, South and North Dakota, Minnesota, Wyoming, Montana, Kansas, Colorado and Oregon are almost all dominated by people with Germanic roots. 14 states are dominated by people with whom the U.S. had two of its bloodiest wars.

Black or African Americans are the next group with 41,000,000 people. Predominantly living in the south of the nation, where they were brought to work on cotton plantation as slaves in the late 18th century. African Americans gained the right to vote by the power of the 15th amendment in 1870, but still struggled after that with their civil rights.

Other groups include people with Iris heritage – 35,000,000; with Mexican ancestral roots – 31,000,000 mostly living in cities as Los Angeles, Houston, Phoenix, San Diego, Dallas and San Antonio.; The next largest grouping of people are those who claim to be English-American – 26,000,000 people. Notable people with English ancestry are Orson Welles and Bill Gates. The most interesting group of people I found are people who claim to be Americans – 19,000,000. There are mostly making a political statement or are uncertain about their direct descendants. Smaller groups of people include: Italian – over 17,000,000, Polish -Just under 10,000,000 and French little over 9,000,000.

All these numbers go to show you that racially discriminating against someone, because they are not “American” is kind of pointless, as most Americans come from diverce backgrounds.

The states are very distinguishable from one another, when it comes to contribution to total GDP as well. The 3 biggest states, contributors to GDP are California ($2.424 Trillion), Texas ($1,648 Trillion) and New York ($1,444 Trillion). Unsurprisingly they are also the 3 most populated states. In the map below you can see just how productive different states are compared to other COUNTRIES.

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States contribution to GDP by numbers:

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States by population:

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There are also political differences between states. A review of the four elections since 2004 shows that most south and mid-western states tend to vote Republican, while the coastal states (especially on the west coast) tend to vote Democrat.

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Some groups are also much more represented in the military than others. Teens and young adults from Florida, Georgia or Maine are twice as likely to join the military than their counterparts in North Dakota or Utah. The official answer from the military is that “a soldier’s demographic characteristics are of little importance in the military, which values honor, leadership, self-sacrifice, courage and integrity”. Still, the army seems to recruit people that live in states, where there are larger number of Naval, Marine, army or Air force bases – that seems to be the case with Florida and Georgia.

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When it comes to gun culture there is a massive difference as well. The variations you can see on the map below are due to firearm laws, cultural and social norms. Unsurprisingly the most liberal states when it comes to guns are those with high percentage of gun owners. In those states people tend to believe that the second amendment was put there for a reason and that no federal government could have a say in that. The states that oppose the second amendment are California and those on the north-east coast.

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There hasve always been rivalries between different states as well. With all the Americans I have talked, when I ask the question “Where are you from?” very few say the U.S. Most of them just say the state or the city they are from. I found this very interesting. There is an inherent pride in being from a certain state. Every state has its different heritage and traditions. People from different states have different accents. So how come when Europeans speak about the U.S. they never really specify witch state they are talking about.

This just goes to show that America as a whole entity doesn’t really exist. There are deep political, cultural, ethnical and financial differences between most of the states.

This is just PART 1 from my examing of the U.S. and different states. In the next days to come I will publish PART 2. 

The Day Care Generation

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“The Fascists of the future will be the anti-fascists”

This is a famous quote from Winston Churchill that certainly rings more true today, than any other time in history. We see SJW (Social Justice Warriors) calling everyone with a different opinion from theirs a fascist now. Most of them grew up in the 1990s, a time when the feminists of that era assured everyone that day care is a smart idea. Well, now it’s obvious that nothing can replace a mother presence in a child’s life.

Many people from this generation are addicted to being treated like they are special. That’s why there are numerous videos of Millennials throwing tantrums when someone questions their beliefs. They are obsessed in grabbing the attention they were denied by their parents, who sent them to day care.

This is what being overprotective of your children gets you. They become thin skinned and not capable of dealing with tense situation. The first controversy they encounter, they start crying for their mommy. They have never been taught how to debate and formulate an argument. Of course, people first blame the education system, but It’s really the parents who are to blame. A child is the product of their parenting. If you spoil your children too much, there is a very real possibility that you will cripple them. There is nothing wrong in letting your children make mistakes. That’s how they learn and grow.

Of course I am generalising here. There are a lot of Millennials that are capable of taking care of themselves. However, there is a massive trend with 1990s generation of kids (now young adults) to behave in a manner, not suited for their age. Millennials in the West grew up in the best, easiest times to be alive. Western civilization had reached its peak and logically there were no real struggles. Now, all grown up, they want to have a cause to fight for. Moreover, they need an enemy, an oppressor. Well, sorry to disappoint you, Millennials, but there’s no one out to get you, except probably the people you are presumably fighting on the behalf of.

My main message is this – raise your kids right, don’t be overprotective, do society a favour and let them absorb their surroundings.

 

Why we should always remember Communism

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I personally have never lived during communist rule in my home country of Bulgaria, however my father was 20 years old when the communism system finally failed and the regime was taken down. This was in 1989 almost 30 years ago. Most of the Bulgarians from my father’s generation absolutely hate communism. The only people that talk fondly of the system are considered losers and degenerates.

That’s why I find it astonishing how millennials from Western Europe and the U.S. consider communism to be an alternative to capitalism. The idea of Karl Marx of a strong country with an authoritarian leader, who will resign after the system has been put in place, has remained this- only an idea, an illusion. Communism has always brought with itself dictatorship and misery – never prosperity.

In the early 1920s no one really looked at communism seriously. A system that would make everyone equal? In the end it did just that – it made everyone equally poor. Through populism the communist leaders of the world caught the wave of discontent of the people. If we don’t learn from our mistakes, there will never be progress. The noble idea of equality lead to exactly the opposite – massive social inequality. The members of the ruling party controlled all the wealth, while the poor had to make do with what was left, which often was very little. Using their propaganda machine, the elite maintain the masses happy, telling them how fortunate they were that they didn’t share the values of the evil West. There was no free speech either. You think the NSA is spying on you now? You have no idea. If you said the wrong thing about the party you were quickly sentenced as a traitor and sent to a concentration camp.

As an economic system communism has failed as well. Almost every communist country went bankrupt. Except maybe for China, but that is only the case because of the massive changes that China implemented. In the beginning the Soviet Union relied on contributions from the West to rebuild its broken economy. In the 1920s the USSR was an agricultural country. With the U.S.’s help, however it became a modern industrialized country. Nevertheless, they still managed to fuck up their economy and in the 1990’s the USSR became a failed state.

Stalin, the most famous of the USSR’s leaders is responsible for more than 25,000,000 people. Forced collectivisation moved millions of people from the countryside to the cities. This move alone caused massive famine in which at least five million Ukrainians died. He also sentenced 750,000 member of the military or the Communist Party to death, simply because he thought they might oppose him. In my home country of Bulgaria with a population of just over 5 million back in 1945, the Communist Party sentenced almost 2730 people to death, because they had different views. In the Nurnberg trials for comparison were sentenced only 19. Almost every business owner lost his equity – in favor of the new Communist regime.

One of the Millennials biggest argument is that this wasn’t really communism and it deserves another shot. Well a quick google search shows that 45 countries declared themselves to be socialist states under the Marxist-Leninist or Maoist definition – that is to say, “Communist states” – between 1979 and 1983. This period marked the greatest territorial extent of Communist states. Of these 45 countries only 4 remain communist – China (the system has since evolved massively and private enterprises draw 50% of the economy), Laos (which in 2011 was declared by the Obama administration as a “no longer Marxist-Leninist state), Vietnam and Cuba (where they still drive cars from the 1950s). This fraudulent system already had its chance, it’s time to move on now, Millennials.

The only thing that communism has to offer is dreams, that if followed or fallen for quickly turn into nightmares.

WW3

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Following my previous pieces on Syria, North Korea, China and Trump, it’s time that we conclude that there is a real possibility that World War 3 could break out. I’m sure most of you believe (as did I) that we as a species have evolved enough to understand the consequences of a new global war, this time over 10 countries having Nuclear Arsenal. Unsurprisingly, the U.S. and Russia having most of them – 7,300 and 6,970 respectively. Who in their right mind would use such an arsenal and potentially destroy all life on the planet?

Well, it’s hard to believe, I get it. Let’s not forget, however that it was also hard to imagine that in the 21st century Russia could attack a sovereign country and annex a piece of it. It was also hard to imagine that Turkey could take half of Cyprus, both being members of NATO. It was also hard to imagine that Kurdistan could become its own country. That the U.S. will annex part of Serbia and create Kosovo. We already had a couple of close calls. Last year a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian jet. If Russia had retaliated and attacked a member of NATO that is also a nuclear weapons sharing state by the way, this would surely have ignited a new World War. Just a couple of days ago the U.S. struck a Syrian Airforce airfield that had Russian personnel on site a couple of hours beforehand. So, we’re ought to look seriously on the matter as all the warning signs are there.

Yesterday Trump warned Kim Jong-un that the U.S. will DEAL with North Korea if China fails to. China tried to do that by cutting coal imports from the communist country, which represent almost half of the economy. However, North Korea still continued its development of nuclear weapons. Last week after presidents Trump and Xi Jinping met, the U.S. sent a navy strike group to the peninsula and China amassed 150,000 troops on its border with North Korea. China is (was) effectively the only friendly country of North Korea. Representatives from the Chinese government have said that pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner could be a potentially disastrous move.

Japan has already prepared to evacuate 60,000 citizens from South Korea. North Korea also started a partial evacuation of its capital city – Pyongyang. The U.S. dropped last week its biggest non-nuclear weapon in its arsenal – the MOAB (Mother Of All Bombs) on an ISIS site in Afghanistan, sending a clear message – Don’t provoke us.

The answer of the North Korean government didn’t come long after that, as they held a military parade on Saturday, displaying some new weaponry possibly containing nuclear warheads. The biggest surprises were two mobile canisters that could contain ICBMs larger than anything North Korea has ever produced. They also showed missiles with the potential of carrying nuclear warheads that could be deployed from a submarine. The massive crowd met under a huge portrait of their leader Kim Jong-un seemed genuinely enthusiastic about their role in this message to Washington and most of the world.

“Your threats have not worked.”

This is the clear message that Kim Jong-Un wants to send. His subjects are loyal to him and are prepared to die for the greater cause (in their mind). This is hardly surprising as almost 70 years of propaganda has brainwashed the whole population. There is no internet in the country, no access to the outside world. All that these people know is what the state run media has told them. A generation of maniacs has controlled the country for over 70 years and the world has just watched. Now the last of these maniacs has over 25 million slaves in its hands prepared for a potential war with the U.S. They are kept in fear, ready for the U.S. to attack any day, as they’re told that the Americans are the enemy that wants to take everything they have, which is not that much.

The North Koreans have tested a couple of missiles already near Japan’s shores. The Japanese are concerned that some of these tests could become potential attacks and a full-blown war might ignite.

Have we had too many close calls now? It sure seems so. North Korea seems like the next place for the World to go to war for a third time. The main question as it seems is – will there be a fourth after this one?