The new dominant player in the Middle East.

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If all the territories populated by Kurds were one united country – an independent state they would most definitely be one of the biggest oil producers in the world, given their production only in Iraq of 600,000 barrels per day. And the region potential is even greater. It is estimated that there are over 45 billion barrels of reserves in Iraqi Kurdistan – more than Nigeria’s. Kurdistan is one of the last wildcards in the oil markets. There is no clear monopoly in the region – that’s where all the disputes come from.

Some of the big companies include Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Total SA and DNO ASA. The last one is the biggest player on the ground – exporting more than 110,000 barrels a day. There are still a lot of roadblocks for big companies, though. Prices have been very volatile – $100 per barrel from 2011 to 2014 and down to $60 in 2015. Another major issue has been that this is effectively a war zone still. ISIS are merely 30 km from Erbil – Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital.

Also there have been many dispute with the Shia (Iran) dominated government in Iraq. Kurdish forces have occupied territories around the Sunni dominated Kirkuk – very rich on oil. Iraq government declared that they won’t sell oil to anyone buying from the Kurds, but if the situation on the ground continues to develop in the same direction, more and more investor would prefer to buy from the Kurds. The territories controlled by the Kurds have remained relatively peaceful and Kurdistan controls almost half of the oil in Iraq. Some Russian companies also show interest in the region.

So who are the clear winners and losers from this situation? Kurds in general are the obvious winner. Currently there are over 40 million Kurds living in 5 countries. That makes them the biggest minority without a country of their own.

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That is beginning to change now. Kurds in Iraq and Syria have already de facto started their autonomies states – almost 8 million Kurds.

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However, there are still over 15 million Kurds in Turkey’s eastern parts and there is a civil war raging there currently. Of course, the war is not covered by the MSM, because Turkey is a Western ally. Turks are by far the biggest losers from this situation, as Kurdish oil is transported to the western markets by the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline.

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The pipeline goes almost in its entirety through regions dominated by the Kurds. And as Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan are already de facto sovereign nations, Turkey seems to be next to follow the list as countries who will lose territory to the Kurds, who have been oppressed for decades.

With its massive oil production and with military forces such as Peshmerga (250,000 fighters), YPG (50,000) and PKK (40,000) it seems like that the formation of united Kurdistan is inevitable. If all the Kurds formed a country it is estimated that it would have GDP of over $150 billion. They have the numbers (over 350,000 fighters), they have the experience (they have fought oppressors for decades), the economy and the finance to provide for their people so it seems that it’s only a matter of time before we see a united Kurdistan with territories in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and potentially even Iran.

16 year and counting: The truth behind the Afghanistan war.

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After the announcement in 2001 that the U.S. would invade Afghanistan to capture Osama bin Laden, which it did almost a decade later, but still decided to remain in the central Asian country. So the question remains: What are U.S. doing 16 years later still in Afghanistan.

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In 2010 a small team of Pentagon geologists found just how massive the scale of mineral wealth in the country was. New York Times proclaimed that this founding was completely random, as a small team of Pentagon official founded old maps that the USSR drew up, with all the mineral wealth of Afghanistan. The minerals are estimated to be worth over $1 Trillion – oil, gold, iron ore, copper, lithium (which is used to make batteries) and other minerals. Just a random event according to the MSM.

Plan of the invasion was ready to go in July 2001 and was placed on George Bush’s desk, untill 9/11 happened – 3 months later. The U.S. officially started the war on the 7th of October the same year. It took them only 26 days to prepare for this massive war. Even the U.S.’s army capabilities this is extraordinary. The planning of the logistics alone of moving all of the equipment and personnel would take more than that. I am not saying that the U.S. government planned 9/11 in advance or knew of the attacks, but the time is rather suspicious to say the least.

Alan Greenspan was the first to name the real purpose of the Iraq war: “I’m saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.” Well, if we are to name the Afghanistan war with its real name as well (the firts to do so), here it goes: The war in Afghanistan is largely about mineral wealth and opium.

Yes, opium is the other great export of Afghanistan. Since the invasion, opium trade has exploded. Over 90% of the world opium supply comes from Afghanistan. Opium is largely by BigPharma for the production of morphine, heroin and codeine. Its a billion dollar business and much of it is used in the illegal production of heroine.  According to the UN in 2014 poppy cultivation reached its highest level since the 1930s. Heroin consumption has sky rocketed and is at all times high, events that followed the U.S. invasion.

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It’s no secret that drug trafficking is a gold mine for organization who want to raise money to finance projects that they can’t get legitimately. Institutions such as the CIA, use this source of income to finance overseas operation, which they couldn’t finance with taxpayers money – toppling governments, inciting riots etc.

Zbigniew Kazimierz accurately predicted back in 1997 that the first major war of the 21th century would happen in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is the key to central Asia and from there – Russia and China.

The next big war in the Middle East

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Hezbollah’s role in the Syrian Civil War has somehow gone unnoticed. This is a bit strange as they are one of the 3 biggest factions that currently impose control over a large part of Syria’s territory. Assad is just a façade – his regular army is almost non-existent, relying mainly on foreign mercenary groups, supported by Iran and Russia – the other 2 big players on the ground. The only control that Assad still has is mainly thanks to the usefulness of his Air Force and artillery units. Otherwise, the situation on the ground is controlled by Hezbollah, Shiite militias from Iraq and Iran and Russian Spetsnaz forces from the Caucasus region.

The growing influence of Hezbollah in Syria is a serious problem for Israel – as the organization is virtually the biggest opponent of the state. They are by far the most experienced Arab military force with over 30 years of conflict. Their last war with Israel was in 2006 and the war ended with no clear winner, which is by default a win for Hezbollah. By offering expertise that Assad military lacked, such as urban warfare tactics, they have turned the course of the war and there help won’t go unnoticed.

The biggest loser from the war in Syria seems to be Israel, as Iran and Hezbollah now dominate the neighbouring country. Not to mention how Iran has basically overtaken Iraq as well. The growing power of these two factions hasn’t gone unnoticed by Israel – recently they bombed different military objects in Syria. It undoubtedly suits Tel Aviv to let Hezbollah bleed in Syria, but chances are that the military organisation comes out stronger out of this conflict. So it seems to be inevitable that a future war is on the horizon.

Israel will probably keep on bombing Hezbollah in Syria, but this brings many potential problems with it. Russia personnel is working closely with Assad, Hezbollah and Iranian troops on the ground. So if one of these strikes Russian troops on the ground… well, this might be the catalyst of an unintended, potentially disastrous consequences.

WW3

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Following my previous pieces on Syria, North Korea, China and Trump, it’s time that we conclude that there is a real possibility that World War 3 could break out. I’m sure most of you believe (as did I) that we as a species have evolved enough to understand the consequences of a new global war, this time over 10 countries having Nuclear Arsenal. Unsurprisingly, the U.S. and Russia having most of them – 7,300 and 6,970 respectively. Who in their right mind would use such an arsenal and potentially destroy all life on the planet?

Well, it’s hard to believe, I get it. Let’s not forget, however that it was also hard to imagine that in the 21st century Russia could attack a sovereign country and annex a piece of it. It was also hard to imagine that Turkey could take half of Cyprus, both being members of NATO. It was also hard to imagine that Kurdistan could become its own country. That the U.S. will annex part of Serbia and create Kosovo. We already had a couple of close calls. Last year a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian jet. If Russia had retaliated and attacked a member of NATO that is also a nuclear weapons sharing state by the way, this would surely have ignited a new World War. Just a couple of days ago the U.S. struck a Syrian Airforce airfield that had Russian personnel on site a couple of hours beforehand. So, we’re ought to look seriously on the matter as all the warning signs are there.

Yesterday Trump warned Kim Jong-un that the U.S. will DEAL with North Korea if China fails to. China tried to do that by cutting coal imports from the communist country, which represent almost half of the economy. However, North Korea still continued its development of nuclear weapons. Last week after presidents Trump and Xi Jinping met, the U.S. sent a navy strike group to the peninsula and China amassed 150,000 troops on its border with North Korea. China is (was) effectively the only friendly country of North Korea. Representatives from the Chinese government have said that pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner could be a potentially disastrous move.

Japan has already prepared to evacuate 60,000 citizens from South Korea. North Korea also started a partial evacuation of its capital city – Pyongyang. The U.S. dropped last week its biggest non-nuclear weapon in its arsenal – the MOAB (Mother Of All Bombs) on an ISIS site in Afghanistan, sending a clear message – Don’t provoke us.

The answer of the North Korean government didn’t come long after that, as they held a military parade on Saturday, displaying some new weaponry possibly containing nuclear warheads. The biggest surprises were two mobile canisters that could contain ICBMs larger than anything North Korea has ever produced. They also showed missiles with the potential of carrying nuclear warheads that could be deployed from a submarine. The massive crowd met under a huge portrait of their leader Kim Jong-un seemed genuinely enthusiastic about their role in this message to Washington and most of the world.

“Your threats have not worked.”

This is the clear message that Kim Jong-Un wants to send. His subjects are loyal to him and are prepared to die for the greater cause (in their mind). This is hardly surprising as almost 70 years of propaganda has brainwashed the whole population. There is no internet in the country, no access to the outside world. All that these people know is what the state run media has told them. A generation of maniacs has controlled the country for over 70 years and the world has just watched. Now the last of these maniacs has over 25 million slaves in its hands prepared for a potential war with the U.S. They are kept in fear, ready for the U.S. to attack any day, as they’re told that the Americans are the enemy that wants to take everything they have, which is not that much.

The North Koreans have tested a couple of missiles already near Japan’s shores. The Japanese are concerned that some of these tests could become potential attacks and a full-blown war might ignite.

Have we had too many close calls now? It sure seems so. North Korea seems like the next place for the World to go to war for a third time. The main question as it seems is – will there be a fourth after this one?

 

 

New war on the horizon?

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The mainstream media just announced that the US has deployed a Navy strike group to the Korean peninsula. The North Korean foreign ministry answer t hat this deployment showed “reckless moves for invading” and that tensions had “reached a serious phase”.

The official statement by the US Pacific Command says that this move is aimed at maintaining readiness in the region. Last week president Trump launched 60 Tomahawk missiles in a hit on a Syrian airfield. This move was probably connected with the sudden deployment of the Navy strike group to the Korean peninsula. It sends a clear message – if provoked the US will answer with force.

The move also comes after a meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart – president Xi Jinping. Right after the announcement that the US will send an Navy strike group to the peninsula, China’s foreign ministry came out with a statement, saying that North Korea should stop trying to develop nuclear arsenal.

The mainstream media as always just reports the obvious and uses scare tactics to get more views and readers. They failed to mention that China banned coal imports from North Korea a month ago, effectively slicing the country’s exports by about half. This also sends a clear message for Trump – It’s time do deal now.